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Chris Meaney
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The leading projections forecast Tyler Conklin to accumulate 4.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
- When talking about air yards, Tyler Conklin grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a striking 39.0 per game.
- Tyler Conklin’s 34.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 87th percentile for TEs.
- With a stellar 37.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (83rd percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin has been as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the league.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the New York Jets as the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect the Jets to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) to tight ends this year (69.5%).
- The Patriots pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against tight ends this year, conceding 6.79 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
