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Chris Meaney
Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots as the 2nd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.2% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
- In this week’s contest, Ezekiel Elliott is expected by the projections to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.0 rush attempts.
- While Ezekiel Elliott has received 44.0% of his team’s rushing play calls in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in New England’s rushing attack this week at 62.7%.
Cons
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 8th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Patriots this year (a mere 56.2 per game on average).
- Ezekiel Elliott’s 34.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year marks an impressive regression in his running talent over last year’s 61.0 rate.
- Ezekiel Elliott’s 3.2 adjusted yards per carry this season signifies a substantial decrease in his rushing prowess over last season’s 4.0 figure.
- This year, the anemic Jets run defense has surrendered a massive 4.09 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 25th-biggest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
