Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devon Achane from EV Insight

Devon AchaneRushing Yards

Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The model projects Devon Achane to accumulate 16.7 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs.
While Devon Achane has been responsible for 31.2% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Miami’s running game in this contest at 70.0%.
The Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL last year in run-blocking.
With a stellar tally of 71.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Devon Achane has been as one of the leading pure runners in the league this year.
The Buffalo Bills defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 4.67 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

This week’s line indicates a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.
The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.14 seconds per play.

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Rushing Yards