NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-112) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.
- This week, Travis Etienne is anticipated by the model to find himself in the 81st percentile among RBs with 15.6 rush attempts.
- Travis Etienne has been a more important option in his team’s ground game this year (63.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (51.6%).
- Travis Etienne has picked up 59.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (86th percentile).
Cons
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jaguars to run on 41.5% of their downs: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.
- Travis Etienne’s 3.7 adjusted yards per carry this season signifies a material drop-off in his rushing talent over last season’s 5.1 rate.
- The Titans defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 3.97 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
