Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jahmyr Gibbs from EV Insight

Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards

Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s spread implies a running game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Right now, the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (41.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Lions.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average).
Jahmyr Gibbs has picked up 67.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (94th percentile).

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This year, the anemic Minnesota Vikings run defense has been torched for a massive 4.03 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 27th-largest rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards