NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
- The predictive model expects the Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The leading projections forecast Drake London to accrue 7.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- Drake London ranks as one of the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an impressive 58.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 54.6% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Drake London’s 23.5% Target% this season represents a meaningful regression in his pass attack workload over last season’s 29.1% rate.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 138.0) vs. wideouts this year.
- This year, the tough Saints defense has surrendered a meager 58.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.
- The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 5th-best group of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
