Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Bijan Robinson from EV Insight

Bijan RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run on 45.4% of their downs: the 10th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accumulate 15.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With an exceptional total of 51.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Bijan Robinson places among the top running backs in the NFL this year.
This year, the fierce New Orleans Saints run defense has conceded a feeble 4.61 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 23rd-smallest rate in the league.

Cons

A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
When it comes to the linebackers’ role in defending against the run, New Orleans’s LB corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards