NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Colts vs. Texans
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-114) after it opened @ 42.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Texans as the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are projected by the model to call 69.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
- The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a whopping 60.0 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- With an exceptional 42.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (85th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz rates as one of the leading TE receiving threats in the league.
Cons
- Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.6 per game) this year.
- Dalton Schultz’s 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 39.7.
- This year, the stout Colts pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a meager 3.7 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
