Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Khalil Herbert from EV Insight

Khalil HerbertRushing Yards

Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-120/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-120) after it opened @ 56.5 (-112).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Bears as the 4th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
Khalil Herbert has received 37.6% of his offense’s rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Khalil Herbert has generated 50.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (75th percentile).
The opposing side have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (132 per game) vs. the Packers defense this year.

Cons

A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 63.4 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards