Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jordan Love from EV Insight

Jordan LovePassing Yards

Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 246.5 (-110).

Pros

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Packers to pass on 58.9% of their downs: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
This year, the anemic Chicago Bears defense has been gouged for a massive 260.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-most in the league.
This year, the porous Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to the opposing side: a massive 5.22 YAC.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Chicago’s collection of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 126.5 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Packers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.9 plays per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards