Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jordan LovePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 246.5 (-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Packers to pass on 58.9% of their downs: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- This year, the anemic Chicago Bears defense has been gouged for a massive 260.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-most in the league.
- This year, the porous Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to the opposing side: a massive 5.22 YAC.
- When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Chicago’s collection of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 126.5 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Packers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.9 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards
245
Passing Yards
