NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tee HigginsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Bengals
Right now, Tee Higgins’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In this week’s game, Tee Higgins is expected by the model to rank in the 92nd percentile among wideouts with 8.7 targets.
- Tee Higgins has totaled significantly more air yards this year (87.0 per game) than he did last year (71.0 per game).
Cons
- Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.
- The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Tee Higgins has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (74.0).
- Tee Higgins’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 71.6% to 58.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
