NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tanner HudsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Bengals
Right now, Tanner Hudson’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-118) after it opened @ 20.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In this week’s contest, Tanner Hudson is predicted by the model to rank in the 75th percentile among tight ends with 4.1 targets.
- Tanner Hudson has totaled far more air yards this year (23.0 per game) than he did last year (10.0 per game).
Cons
- Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.
- The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Tanner Hudson checks in as one of the weakest tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 16th percentile.
- This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a puny 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 3rd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
