Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jarrett Stidham

Jarrett StidhamPassing Yards

Right now, Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Broncos may take to the air less in this week’s contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.7 per game) this year.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
With a stellar 8.15 adjusted yards-per-target (92nd percentile) last year, Jarrett Stidham rates as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the league.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (276.0 per game) vs. the Chargers defense this year.

Cons

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Broncos as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 126.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
The Broncos have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
In this week’s game, Jarrett Stidham is forecasted by the projection model to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.2.

Projection

THE BLITZ
189
Passing Yards