NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jarrett StidhamPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Broncos vs. Chargers
Right now, Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The Broncos may take to the air less in this week’s contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.7 per game) this year.
- The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- With a stellar 8.15 adjusted yards-per-target (92nd percentile) last year, Jarrett Stidham rates as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the league.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (276.0 per game) vs. the Chargers defense this year.
Cons
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Broncos as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 126.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
- The Broncos have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
- In this week’s game, Jarrett Stidham is forecasted by the projection model to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.2.
Projection
THE BLITZ
189
Passing Yards
189
Passing Yards
