Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Colts vs. Raiders
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-133) after it opened @ 73.5 (-119).
Pros
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
- Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are forecasted by the model to run 66.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 60.5 plays per game.
- Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to notch 21.4 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- The leading projections forecast Jonathan Taylor to be a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack in this week’s contest (79.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.4% in games he has played).
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Jonathan Taylor’s 61.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a material decline in his rushing prowess over last year’s 79.0 mark.
- The Las Vegas defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards
92
Rushing Yards
