NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Colts vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+108/-139).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+108) after it opened @ 65.5 (-113).
Pros
- At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
- The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
- Our trusted projections expect Davante Adams to accumulate 11.6 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Davante Adams’s 83.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 75.0.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Cons
- Right now, the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (57.3% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
- With regard to a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-slowest in the league (context-neutralized) right now.
- Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.7 per game) this year.
- After averaging 124.0 air yards per game last year, Davante Adams has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 116.0 per game.
- Davante Adams’s 68.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year illustrates a significant reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 89.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards
90
Receiving Yards
