Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chigoziem Okonkwo from EV Insight

Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards

Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).

Pros

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on passing than their normal approach.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week, Chigoziem Okonkwo is forecasted by the model to slot into the 90th percentile among TEs with 6.2 targets.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.5% Target% this year shows a substantial improvement in his pass attack volume over last year’s 10.8% figure.
The Houston Texans defense has given up the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (57.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Cons

Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Tennessee Titans.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 64.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 4th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 55.2 per game on average).
When talking about protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Titans profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 6.7 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 9.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards