NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Titans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).
Pros
- At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on passing than their normal approach.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- This week, Chigoziem Okonkwo is forecasted by the model to slot into the 90th percentile among TEs with 6.2 targets.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.5% Target% this year shows a substantial improvement in his pass attack volume over last year’s 10.8% figure.
- The Houston Texans defense has given up the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (57.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Cons
- Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Tennessee Titans.
- Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 64.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The 4th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 55.2 per game on average).
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Titans profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 6.7 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 9.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
