Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Khalil Herbert from EV Insight

Khalil HerbertRushing Yards

Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Khalil Herbert is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 carries.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the importance it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 9th-best in football last year.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.39 seconds per play.
Khalil Herbert’s 43.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season marks a substantial reduction in his running proficiency over last season’s 53.0 mark.
Khalil Herbert’s 4.2 adjusted yards per carry this season represents a noteable regression in his running talent over last season’s 5.4 rate.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards