NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-125) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- Out of all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 80th percentile for carries this year, taking on 48.1% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
- The Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football last year at opening holes for runners.
- Aaron Jones’s ground efficiency (4.40 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (78th percentile when it comes to RBs).
- The Vikings linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Packers as the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Right now, the 7th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Packers.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- Aaron Jones’s 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season conveys a meaningful decrease in his running talent over last season’s 64.0 mark.
- This year, the poor Vikings run defense has conceded a massive 3.89 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s running game: the 28th-highest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
