Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Panthers, who are huge -7-point underdogs.
The Panthers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (37.7 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Adam Thielen to notch 8.3 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Adam Thielen’s 68.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season marks a material growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 47.0 mark.

Cons

The model projects the Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Panthers to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
The Jacksonville cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards