Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Justice Hill from EV Insight

Justice HillRushing Yards

Right now, Justice Hill’s rushing yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-137/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-137) after it opened @ 29.5 (-114).

Pros

A rushing game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 8th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are projected by the predictive model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The model projects Justice Hill to be a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack in this contest (28.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.8% in games he has played).
Justice Hill’s running efficiency (4.53 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (82nd percentile when it comes to running backs).

Cons

Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 92.0 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.
As it relates to the safeties’ role in defending against the run, Miami’s unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Rushing Yards