Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jerome Ford

Jerome FordRushing Yards

Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+102/-134).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+102) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).

Pros

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Browns being a massive 7-point favorite in this game.
The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 65.9 plays per game.
The projections expect Jerome Ford to notch 14.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
The model projects Jerome Ford to be a more important option in his offense’s running game in this game (51.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.5% in games he has played).

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-least run-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 35.9% run rate.
Jerome Ford’s running efficiency (3.58 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (21st percentile when it comes to running backs).
The New York Jets defense has produced the 8th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering just 4.04 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards