NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-137) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are projected by the predictive model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
- Zay Flowers has run a route on 93.6% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.
- In this week’s game, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.3 targets.
- Zay Flowers ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, completing a stellar 74.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded a staggering 70.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.
Cons
- A rushing game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.32 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
