NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-120/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 9.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 30.2% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- In regards to air yards, Stefon Diggs grades out in the towering 94th percentile among WRs this year, averaging a whopping 105.0 per game.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.
- The Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.3%) versus wide receivers this year (67.3%).
Cons
- This game’s line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 14.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to chug along at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- Stefon Diggs has accrued significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
- Stefon Diggs’s 66.7% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a significant reduction in his receiving ability over last season’s 72.7% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
