Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-103) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 130.7 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.5 plays per game.
In this week’s contest, Tony Pollard is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.4 rush attempts.
With a remarkable rate of 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (89th percentile), Tony Pollard rates among the leading running backs in football this year.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 8th-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 39.1% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This year, the daunting Lions run defense has yielded a mere 91.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 4th-fewest in football.
As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Detroit’s unit has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards