Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

A throwing game script is implied by the Lions being a -4.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 61.6% of their plays: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projection model to run 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 61.0 plays per game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (96.0) this season than he did last season (77.0).

Cons

Opposing teams have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
This year, the strong Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded a paltry 125.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 5th-best in football.
This year, the daunting Cowboys defense has yielded a paltry 57.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-best rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards