Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-129) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Browns.
The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 65.9 plays per game.
In this week’s game, David Njoku is projected by the model to land in the 99th percentile among TEs with 8.7 targets.
David Njoku has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 21.6% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among TEs.

Cons

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Browns being a massive 7-point favorite in this game.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.7 per game) this year.
After accruing 45.0 air yards per game last season, David Njoku has fallen off this season, currently pacing 35.0 per game.
David Njoku’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 77.2% to 67.6%.
David Njoku’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a measly 6.75 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.91 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards