NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-129) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Browns.
- The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 65.9 plays per game.
- In this week’s game, David Njoku is projected by the model to land in the 99th percentile among TEs with 8.7 targets.
- David Njoku has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 21.6% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is indicated by the Browns being a massive 7-point favorite in this game.
- Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.7 per game) this year.
- After accruing 45.0 air yards per game last season, David Njoku has fallen off this season, currently pacing 35.0 per game.
- David Njoku’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 77.2% to 67.6%.
- David Njoku’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a measly 6.75 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.91 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
