Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tommy Tremble from EV Insight

Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards

Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 15.5 (+100) after it opened @ 10.5 (-125).

Pros

The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.2 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Tommy Tremble’s ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 62.0% to 80.0%.
The Packers pass defense has shown bad efficiency against tight ends this year, giving up 9.09 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.

Cons

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
Tommy Tremble’s 10.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 17.3.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards