Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-125) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Travis Kelce is projected by the projection model to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs with 8.6 targets.
Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Travis Kelce has compiled a whopping 62.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among tight ends.
This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 78.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in the league.

Cons

This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 10.5 points.
The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Travis Kelce’s 73.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year indicates a substantial reduction in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 80.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards