Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Breece Hall from EV Insight

Breece HallRushing Yards

Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+102/-132).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+102) after it opened @ 46.5 (-112).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
At just 27.18 seconds per play, the Jets offense grades out as the 10th-quickest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
The projections expect Breece Hall to notch 14.5 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Breece Hall has been given 54.8% of his team’s run game usage this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
The Commanders defense owns the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 4.55 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

The projections expect the New York Jets to be the 9th-least run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.6% run rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the worst in football last year in run-blocking.
Breece Hall has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (43.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
Breece Hall’s 3.9 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects a meaningful reduction in his rushing talent over last season’s 5.8 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards