Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 75.5 (-120) after it opened @ 77.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has notched significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (77.0).

Cons

The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 10th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
The Vikings safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards