NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chargers vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 245.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 245.5 (-135) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- In totaling a staggering 36.8 pass attempts per game this year, Josh Allen stands among the top QBs in the league (83rd percentile) in this regard.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.
- Josh Allen profiles as one of the leading passers in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 267.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being an enormous 12.5-point favorite in this game.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 55.2% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 6th-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
