NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Panthers vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-148/+112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+112) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to call the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
- Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to earn 5.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.
- With a remarkable 39.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (82nd percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the leading TE receiving threats in football.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 46.8% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
- After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has posted significant losses this year, currently pacing 63.0 per game.
- Kyle Pitts’s 45.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 63.1.
- Kyle Pitts’s ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this year, totaling a mere 2.61 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.61 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
