Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Giants
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 209.5 (-110) after it opened @ 210.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a massive 62.1 per game on average).
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- Derek Carr’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 61.4% to 64.7%.
- This year, the feeble New York Giants defense has conceded the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to the opposing side: a massive 5.32 YAC.
Cons
- The Saints are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Derek Carr has passed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (212.0) this season than he did last season (237.0).
- Derek Carr ranks as one of the least effective QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards
249
Passing Yards
