Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Titans vs. Texans
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects DeAndre Hopkins to accumulate 8.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.
- After totaling 111.0 air yards per game last year, DeAndre Hopkins has shown good development this year, currently pacing 124.0 per game.
- DeAndre Hopkins’s 74.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 97th percentile for wideouts.
- The Houston Texans defense has been torched for the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (168.0) vs. wideouts this year.
- This year, the deficient Houston Texans defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing WRs: a staggering 9.28 yards.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 51.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are anticipated by the projection model to call just 64.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
- DeAndre Hopkins has accrued substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
