Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Titans vs. Texans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-135) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.
- The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Derrick Henry to earn 18.5 carries this week, on balance, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- The Houston defensive tackles profile as the worst unit in football this year with their run defense.
Cons
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are anticipated by the projection model to call just 64.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
- Derrick Henry has been a much smaller part of his team’s run game this season (67.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (80.1%).
- Derrick Henry has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (65.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).
- The Texans defense boasts the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up just 3.61 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards
80
Rushing Yards
