Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-101) after it opened @ 224.5 (-119).

Pros

Tua Tagovailoa has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (289.0) this year than he did last year (253.0).
Tua Tagovailoa’s 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a substantial improvement in his throwing precision over last year’s 64.0% figure.
With an outstanding 8.67 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Tua Tagovailoa ranks among the best per-play passers in football.

Cons

This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins as the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Dolphins this year (a mere 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
206
Passing Yards