Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Rams vs. Commanders
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-104) after it opened @ 270.5 (-123).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Sam Howell to attempt 39.7 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the most among all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- With an outstanding record of 270.0 adjusted passing yards per game (81st percentile), Sam Howell ranks as one of the leading QBs in football this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Commanders offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.46 seconds per snap.
- This year, the tough Los Angeles Rams defense has given up a mere 64.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.
- This year, the strong Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a paltry 7.0 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards
279
Passing Yards
