Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Cardinals vs. 49ers
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-139/+108).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+108) after it opened @ 51.5 (-117).
Pros
- James Conner has been a much smaller piece of his team’s offense this year, staying in the game for just 62.0% of snaps vs 79.5% last year.
- The model projects James Conner to total 12.2 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- James Conner’s 71.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows a material gain in his rushing talent over last year’s 61.0 mark.
- With an excellent tally of 4.97 adjusted yards per carry (88th percentile), James Conner rates as one of the top running backs in the league this year.
- James Conner comes in as one of the top running backs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a fantastic 3.64 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 98th percentile.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Cardinals, who are big -11.5-point underdogs.
- The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.5% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by our trusted projection set to call only 61.5 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
- This year, the imposing 49ers run defense has conceded a puny 75.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
