Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-103) after it opened @ 71.5 (-119).

Pros

The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 67.0% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see 132.3 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.
Our trusted projections expect Stefon Diggs to accumulate 10.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.
With a high 29.8% Target% (95th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places as one of the WRs with the highest volume in football.
As it relates to air yards, Stefon Diggs grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among wide receivers this year, accumulating a striking 104.0 per game.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Stefon Diggs’s 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a significant decline in his receiving skills over last season’s 72.7% mark.
Stefon Diggs’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a measly 8.00 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.62 figure last year.
The Cowboys defense has allowed the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 127.0) versus wide receivers this year.
This year, the strong Cowboys defense has allowed a measly 58.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-best rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards