Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson from EV Insight

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-130) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 60.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are predicted by the predictive model to run 66.1 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cowboys have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
In this week’s contest, Jake Ferguson is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.7 targets.
Jake Ferguson’s 15.6% Target% this season marks a material growth in his air attack utilization over last season’s 4.5% mark.

Cons

Jake Ferguson’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 84.5% to 72.2%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards