Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Jaguars to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.49 seconds per play.
- The weatherman calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- In this week’s contest, Travis Etienne is anticipated by the predictive model to position himself in the 91st percentile among running backs with 16.6 rush attempts.
- Travis Etienne has been a more important option in his offense’s run game this season (64.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (51.6%).
- Travis Etienne has generated 61.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (89th percentile).
Cons
- A passing game script is implied by the Jaguars being a -4-point underdog this week.
- The projections expect the Jaguars as the 10th-least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 39.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- As it relates to run support (and the influence it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Jaguars grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year.
- Travis Etienne’s rushing efficiency has diminished this season, notching a mere 3.64 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.06 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
