NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
- The model projects Isaiah Likely to total 4.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
- The predictive model expects Isaiah Likely to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game in this week’s contest (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.1% in games he has played).
- When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the best in football this year.
- Isaiah Likely’s 82.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a noteworthy gain in his receiving ability over last season’s 65.4% mark.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Baltimore Ravens.
- Isaiah Likely has posted quite a few less air yards this season (8.0 per game) than he did last season (26.0 per game).
- The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.1%) to tight ends this year (68.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
