Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-141/+108).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+108) after it opened @ 55.5 (-113).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
- Zay Flowers has run a route on 93.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- In this contest, Zay Flowers is projected by the predictive model to place in the 84th percentile among WRs with 7.5 targets.
- Zay Flowers has been responsible for a whopping 23.6% of his team’s air yards this year: 77th percentile among wideouts.
- Zay Flowers grades out as one of the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in an impressive 74.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 91st percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Baltimore Ravens.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Jacksonville’s collection of CBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
