Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bengals vs. Vikings
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-125) after it opened @ 56.5 (-119).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.
- The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to accumulate 15.6 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has averaged 59.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (85th percentile).
Cons
- The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 39.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
- The model projects Joe Mixon to be much less involved in his offense’s running game this week (59.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (75.2% in games he has played).
- The Bengals O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
- The opposing side have rushed for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 93.0 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
