Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gardner MinshewPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 232.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Colts as the 10th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
- In this week’s game, Gardner Minshew is projected by our trusted projection set to total the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.3.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts grades out as the 7th-best in football this year.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.
- Gardner Minshew’s 6.61 adjusted yards-per-target this season shows a significant decrease in his passing efficiency over last season’s 7.8% rate.
- This year, the daunting Steelers defense has surrendered a mere 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.
- As it relates to linebackers rushing the passer, Pittsburgh’s group of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards
251
Passing Yards
