Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 35.5 (-125).
Pros
- The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
- The projections expect Pat Freiermuth to total 6.1 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
- The Colts defense has yielded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (62.0) versus tight ends this year.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.41 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
- Pat Freiermuth has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
- Pat Freiermuth’s 32.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 41.2.
- Pat Freiermuth’s 30.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a significant drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 49.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
