Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (-133) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
This week, Justin Jefferson is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.3 targets.
This year, the weak Raiders pass defense has allowed a colossal 70.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-worst rate in football.

Cons

This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to run just 64.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
Justin Jefferson’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 72.0% to 68.2%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards