Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.
The predictive model expects Keenan Allen to garner 11.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
After totaling 89.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has undergone big improvement this season, now boasting 106.0 per game.
Keenan Allen’s 102.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a material gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 80.0 rate.

Cons

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
A running game script is suggested by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Broncos defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
104
Receiving Yards