Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-130) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
A throwing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Panthers are projected by the projections to call 66.8 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 62.5 plays per game.
Adam Thielen’s 67.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents an impressive progression in his receiving skills over last season’s 47.0 rate.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
In regards to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Panthers ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a measly 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 4th-best rate in football.
This year, the imposing New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a meager 7.4 yards.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, New Orleans’s unit has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards