Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Chuba Hubbard from EV Insight

Chuba HubbardRushing Yards

Right now, Chuba Hubbard’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-114).

Pros

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Panthers are projected by the projections to call 66.8 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 62.5 plays per game.
In this game, Chuba Hubbard is projected by the projection model to finish in the 89th percentile among RBs with 17.0 rush attempts.
The model projects Chuba Hubbard to be much more involved in his team’s running game in this week’s game (62.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.4% in games he has played).
This year, the tough New Orleans Saints run defense has conceded a meager 4.64 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 24th-lowest rate in football.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
A throwing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Chuba Hubbard’s rushing effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling a measly 3.91 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.73 rate last year.
The Saints linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards